Tag Archive for 'Middle East'

We broke it, we bought it

America, we can’t “cut and run” from Iraq.

This is precisely the worst time to leave Iraq. To quote James Baker (of the Iraq Study Group), abandoning Iraq would mean “the biggest civil war you’ve ever seen.” Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish groups are all jockeying to partition Iraq into autonomous states. Without Hussein’s forced pseudo-peace, de facto war amongst Shia militias, Sunni militias, and the new state “police” has already killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis. Militia-lead ethnic cleansing long ago began, and would only accelerate with a set-in-stone pullout.

The only thing really holding the country together is America. Ironically, Iraq’s best hope for peace is the country that invaded it. To echo The Economist, America can’t do jack shit about Iraq if America isn’t in Iraq. We need to solidify our commitment and take the responsibility we asked for. Main-line Democrats and Republicans need to jointly declare that leaving Iraq in good condition is America’s best interest. A chaotic Iraq would destroy what little stability the Middle East still has, thus screwing over both Americans and Middle Easterners. Meanwhile, Bush needs to stop saying things like “the terrorists are trying to influence public opinion here in the United States” and “break our will.” Bush, seriously, shut the fuck up. People want to leave in Iraq not because of terrorist propaganda, but because you did such a jolly shitty job both invading and rebuilding it.

Next, America needs to somehow cultivate moderation in Iraq. Yeah, easier said than done, but still true. You can’t have a democracy when one third of the citizens want to murder the other two-thirds, and vice versa, and vice versa. You can’t have a country when the three constituent groups want their own countries (and wouldn’t mind a lil’ genocide along the way).

The best thing America can do now is ensure security, while keeping its hands off the actual government. No puppet governors, no obvious political intervention. Legitimacy is the currency of any relevant government, and the Iraqi government needs it badly. Meanwhile, moderate officials must be able to get to work without being blown up or shot. If moderation is seen as siding with “the Great Satan,” then budding moderates are literally as good as dead.

Back in the U.S.

Things are happening in America:

  1. First up, a miracle: Alberto Fernandez, on Director of Public Relations at the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, told al-Jezeera “I think there is great room for strong criticism, because without doubt, there was arrogance and stupidity by the United States in Iraq.” HOLY FUCKING SHIT, FINALLY. This man would be my semi-hero if it wasn’t for that fact that he, of course, backtracked, saying the next day that “upon reading the transcript of my appearance on al-Jazeera, I realized that I seriously misspoke.” No, no you didn’t, in fact you said exactly the right thing. Not only was it the right thing to admit, it’s exactly the sort of humility the U.S. needs to show if it wants to regain some credibility in the Arabic world, which largely sees America as, yes, arrogant and stupid. In any case, the right cat is out of the right bag.
  2. Next, Barack Obama might run for President in 2008! Folks, being in Singapore has made me realize that I love America—I just hate that it’s run by fucking idiots. Obama represents the greatest ray of hope this country will have seen in a long while—if you love what America was founded to stand for, you’ll vote for Obama. Why? I’ll cut to the chase: one, he’s honest (for a politician). He’s human. He admits that not everything he’s done is a shining example for every little boy and girl in the country, and that’s okay—it’s part of what makes us people and not ideals. Did he smoke weed? “When I was a kid, I inhaled,” Mr. Obama said here to an audience of magazine editors. “That was the point.” Two, he changes his mind. When he was first elected Senator of Illinois, he stated he wouldn’t run for President in 2008. “That was how I was thinking at that time.” But, “given the responses I’ve been getting… I have thought about the possibility.” Bush famously called this “flip-flopping” while running against Kerry in ‘04, which would have blown me out of the water if it came from anyone but ol’ Dumbshit. Bush, mate, when new facts surface, when situations change, you need to rethink your position and, indeed, sometimes change it. Now, I know this is hard for you, probably because you didn’t think in the first place, but that’s precisely Obama is so very, very much better than you!

Koreans take aim; Israeli Cabinet one-ups Kim Jong Il

Recently South Korea’s been pursuing a so-called “sunshine policy” of being extra, extra nice to North Korea—its insane border buddy captained by Kim Jong Il—in the hope of not being blown up.

Well, according to Reuters, the sun’s setting.

North and South Korean troops exchanged gunfire across their heavily fortified border for the first time in about a year, a military official said on Tuesday, with the incident coming as once warming ties turn chilly.

In other news, Israel’s looking for a W-A-R.

The Israeli cabinet has agreed to widen the country’s ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The decision, made at a closed door session, received unanimous approval, a senior political source said. (BBC News)

As both a resident of this world and as a 22-year-old easily drafted male citizen of America—the mack daddy of reckless countries—this is all making me a tad nervous.

Israel determined to be the biggest dick in the Middle East

Israel is the most self-destructive, mindlessly militant country I’ve ever seen. According to the International Herald Tribune (emphasis mine):

The Israeli government met Thursday to decide whether to broaden the Lebanon offensive. An Israeli Cabinet minister said world powers’ lack of agreement on a cease-fire this week gave Israel a green light to press deeper to wipe out Hezbollah guerrillas. […] The Israeli military warned Lebanese in the south on Thursday that their villages would be ‘totally destroyed’ if missiles are fired from them.

Israel, for fuck’s sake, what the hell do you think you’re doing?! Look, sit your ass down, I’m going to make this quick:

  1. Every other country in the Middle East hates you. A lot. In terms of number of people, you’re probably the most hated country on the face of the Earth.
  2. Ramping up anti-Lebanese attacks instead of agreeing to a cease-fire only succeeds in making Israelis terrorists in the eyes of the Middle East. To quote Warren Christopher of the Washington Post, “Because Hezbollah has positioned itself as the ‘David’ in this war, every day that the killing continues burnishes its reputation within the Arab world.”
  3. Lebanon is both your immediate neighbor to the north and one of the few relatively stable democracies in the region. You need them to stay stable, moderate, and pro-U.S.
  4. Every bomb you drop in Lebanon is a bomb you drop on their fragile, hard-won Western-friendly democracy. What kind of foreign policy do you think the surviving Lebanese are going to vote for? It sure as fuck won’t be “let’s give hugs to the Israelis!”
  5. Furthermore, all the Western expats with their moderating effect on Lebanese society? Yeah, they’re all going to go home. And who’s going to be left?
  6. Stop listening to America—we do not have your interests at heart, nor do we really care what happens to you past your status as America’s biggest military base.
  7. Thus, at the end of this operation you’ll only have succeeded in creating yet another hardened enemy and a ready excuse for more terrorist attacks against your own citizens. Moreover, your solid, unbreakable alliance with the United States—the #2 most hated country in the Middle East—will be more clear than ever. If you make it clear that the only language you speak is destruction, then that’s the language those around you will use.

Israel’s leaders are obviously feeling invincible thanks to their long-dominant military and U.S.-led support. The problem is, no nation is an island—no nation can ignore its neighbors growing anger and resentment. If Israel’s leaders were smart, they’d start cultivating a sense of rational, fair, level-headed behavior in their neighbors instead of handing out more reasons for hatred. Israel needs to make the Middle Eastern world see Hezbollah as the aggressor and the ones trashing a fragile peace. Truly, Israel needs to keep diplomacy alive as an option in the eyes of Israel’s world-be enemies.

That is how a “permanent,” “sustainable” solution can be created. By contrast, hiding behind Condoleezza Rice’s rhetoric and attempting to utterly destroy Hezbollah simply ensures that Israel and Middle East will suffer even more greatly in the future.

(photo: BBC News)

Who’s on Israel’s side

The Independent has a brilliant info-graphic that shows exactly who’s siding with Israel on the Israel-Lebanon conflict:

As I understand it: Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant resistance movement and political party, attacked several of Israel’s northern cities with rockets in an attempt to get Israel to release three Lebanese political prisoners. Israel retaliated against Lebanon as a whole and Hezbollah facilities specifically, with bombing raids, ground raids, naval blockades, and the capture of Maroun al-Ras. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Government is desperately calling for a ceasefire while disavowing Hezbollah’s actions. (Hezbollah has 18% of the seats in Lebanon’s Parliament; 27.3% including others in its bloc.)

Basically, the U.S. seems to be blindly pro-Israel and willing to hold all of Lebanon responsible, even though only a small portion of Lebanon is at fault. On July 16, Rice said the only way to fix things was “to deal with the extremists, isolate the extremists, and put in place moderate democratic states.” The thing is, Lebanon is already ruled by a pro-U.S. coalition. The longer Israel—with U.S. backing—hammers away at Lebanon, the more the Lebanese will feel betrayed by America over a militant faction of which they have no control, and the more Hezbollah will seem correct in their actions, thus pushing the whole of Lebanon into a war that doesn’t need to happen.

A comprehensive ceasefire is needed for both states; or, conversely, what favorable outcome could possibly come from continued attacks? As Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora argues, “Bombardment, killing, injuries, and destruction of all the infrastructure—this is not an environment in which you can talk.” Even if the Lebanese Government somehow capitulates to Israel, that doesn’t mean that Hezbollah would be stopped—that group is as much apart from the government as it is a part of it. What seems likely is the escalation of the conflict, as other Arab/Middle Eastern states come to aid of Lebanon and the U.S./reluctant Western-EU countries comes to the aid of Israel.

Also, why is the U.K. still our bitch? Join the EU already!

(thanks to kottke.org)